The Balearic Islands, Canary Islands, Madrid and Catalonia are the four autonomous communities with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth expected to be above the national average in 2023, as stated in the report by BBVA Research. The two island regions will grow next year by 2.4% and 2.1% respectively, while Madrid will grow by 1.7% and Catalonia by 1.3%.
This is the result of this update of the growth forecast made by BBVA Research for the autonomous communities, after it revised Spain’s GDP upwards to 1.2% for the following year.
Following the Balearic Islands, Canary Islands, Madrid and Catalonia are Extremadura and La Rioja, which are estimated to have a growth identical to the national average (1.2%) in 2023.
Below the average are Cantabria (1.1%); Valencia (1%); Andalusia (1%); Aragon (1%); Castile-La Mancha (0.9%); Castile and Leon (0.9%); the Basque Country (0.8%); Murcia (0.7%); Navarre (0.7%) and Asturias (0.6%) and Galicia (0.5%).
Overall, however, BBVA Research believes that the most industrial autonomous communities will contribute the most to GDP growth in Spain in 2023 and 2024, up to 1.2% and 3.4%, respectively.
The boost from the Next Generation EU Funds (NGEU), greater certainty, lower inflation and the increase in household income will favour the greater dynamism of the economy.