A recent study published in the Bulletin of Volcanology has updated the estimated probabilities of an eruption at Mount Teide in the coming years, sparking both scientific and public interest. The research highlights the Teide-Pico Viejo (TPV) volcanic complex as one of the active volcanic systems in Europe. Despite traditionally being regarded as neither highly explosive nor a major threat, new evidence points to the need for ongoing vigilance.
Current Activity and Concerns
The National Geographic Institute (IGN) recently detected seismic activity near the Cañadas del Teide, specifically in the vicinity of Pico Viejo. This discovery raised concerns among residents, as seismic swarms were a precursor to the 2021 eruption on La Palma. Geologists, however, stress that these movements may be linked to steam or water trapped within the volcano, rather than imminent magma movement. Despite these observations, experts agree that the volcano’s state remains stable at present.
Study Findings and Historical Context
Lead geologist Joan Martí and his team conducted a comprehensive analysis of the Teide’s eruption probabilities, factoring in its geological history and current activity. Their findings estimate the likelihood of a significant eruption as follows:
- A 2.1% probability within the next 20 years
- A 5.1% probability within 50 years
- A 10% probability within the next century
Additionally, there is an 11.1% chance of a smaller-scale eruption by 2060. The last recorded eruption of Mount Teide occurred in 1909, but the volcano’s history includes 16 eruptions in the past 12,000 years, with the most powerful event occurring approximately 2,020 years ago, reaching a magnitude of 5.3. A period of seismic unrest in 2004 further highlighted the need for continued surveillance.
Geographic Impact and Scenarios
The study uses simulations to assess the potential consequences of an eruption on Tenerife. It indicates that the southern part of the island would likely be shielded by the Las Cañadas caldera. In contrast, the northeastern region—home to Santa Cruz de Tenerife and San Cristóbal de La Laguna—may face higher risks from ashfall, gas emissions, and other volcanic hazards.
The northern flank, particularly the Icod and La Orotava valleys, is also vulnerable due to the potential for gravity-driven lava flows. Past eruptions have shown that viscous, low-temperature lavas from Teide can travel over 16 kilometers, sometimes reaching the coast, which is home to a significant population of over 900,000 people.
Potential Hazards
In addition to lava flows, the study identifies other hazards, such as pyroclastic deposits and currents, that could affect communities near the TPV complex. The direction of wind patterns would play a crucial role in determining the spread of ash and gases, potentially impacting larger areas in the event of a Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption. These eruptions, characterized by explosive activity and toxic gas emissions, could have far-reaching consequences beyond the immediate vicinity of the volcano.
Importance of Preparedness
The findings underscore the necessity of continuous monitoring and the inclusion of volcanic risks in regional emergency response plans. While the overall probabilities remain low, the potential impacts of even a minor eruption highlight the importance of maintaining robust observation systems and ensuring that residents are informed and prepared for any eventuality. By better understanding the potential scenarios, local authorities and scientists can work together to minimize risks and ensure public safety.
