The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has issued a forecast signalling the arrival of an intense heat episode starting Monday, 26 May, which will affect the Spanish mainland. This follows a period of unseasonably cool and wet weather. The upcoming shift is linked to a powerful anticyclone centred over the Azores, extending over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, creating a pattern of atmospheric stability, clear skies, and intense solar radiation.
Soaring Temperatures Across Mainland Spain
Over the next several days, temperatures will rise progressively and broadly across the country. By Tuesday, 27 May, forecasts predict:
- Up to 38 °C in the Guadalquivir Valley
- Around 35 °C in the Guadiana Valley
From Wednesday, 28 May, a high-altitude isolated depression (DANA) may develop between the Canary Islands and the Gulf of Cádiz. This atmospheric system is expected to bring:
- Southerly winds
- A mass of warm, dry air with suspended Saharan dust (calima)
- An expansion of extreme temperatures toward Andalusia, the Alborán Sea, and later the central mainland
Heatwave Status and Criteria
Although conditions will be extreme, AEMET clarifies that the episode does not currently meet the technical threshold for a declared heatwave. According to the agency, such a designation requires:
- At least three consecutive days
- With maximum temperatures above the 95th percentile
- In at least 10% of all meteorological stations
Nonetheless, peak temperatures are forecast to escalate further between Thursday, 29 May and Friday, 30 May:
- 35 °C on the Northern Plateau
- 37 °C in the Ebro and Tagus Valleys
- 39 °C in the Lower Guadiana
- 40–42 °C in the Guadalquivir Valley
Minimum nighttime temperatures will also climb:
- Exceeding 20 °C in the southwest starting Thursday
- Rising above 20 °C in much of central and southern Spain, as well as the Ebro Valley, by Saturday
Canary Islands: Shielded by the Trade Winds
The Canary Islands are expected to remain unaffected by this mainland heat surge. According to AEMET, the persistent trade winds will help preserve atmospheric stability throughout the archipelago. The forecast includes:
- Cloudy intervals in the north of the higher islands
- Partly cloudy to clear skies elsewhere
- Stable temperatures without significant variation
- Moderate trade winds, occasionally strong in exposed areas
City Forecast Highlights
Capitals and major inland cities will face especially high temperatures:
- Badajoz, Córdoba, Seville: possibly over 40 °C on Thursday
- Madrid, Zaragoza, Toledo, Jaén, Cáceres, Ciudad Real, Zamora: around 35 °C
- Bilbao: up to 32 °C
- Southern coastal areas: minimums will not fall below 20 °C
Possible Weekend Shift
From Saturday, 31 May, the situation may begin to shift, with:
- Increased cloud cover
- Possible thunderstorms
- The presence of Saharan dust (calima)
- A gradual drop in temperatures
However, this change remains uncertain. AEMET encourages residents and travellers to stay informed.
