Samuel Biener, a climatologist at Meteored, has highlighted the impending arrival of a complex weather system marked by intense thunderstorms and soaring temperatures more typical of Spain’s peak summer season. While parts of the mainland brace for significant weather disruption, the Canary Islands are expected to remain largely on the periphery of the most adverse conditions.
Intense Rain and Hail Hit Mainland Provinces
On the mainland, the preceding days have already seen a return of heavy rainfall. In the eastern interior of the Peninsula, particularly in the provinces of Teruel and Albacete, hailstorms have caused considerable damage. Gusts of wind and localised intense showers have compounded the disruption, affecting agricultural areas and infrastructure.
According to Meteored’s forecast, the coming days will continue to be marked by the alternation of stormy episodes and a steady increase in temperatures. The underlying cause lies in an atmospheric pattern dominated by low-pressure systems to the west of the Iberian Peninsula, which are enabling the intrusion of a very warm air mass from south-western Europe.
Although the Canary Islands are unlikely to bear the brunt of this meteorological episode, they will still experience some of its peripheral effects.
Anomalous Heat at Altitude
This incoming air mass is atypical for June and will bring temperatures of up to 28°C at an altitude of 1,500 metres. While the episode is not expected to meet the criteria to be officially classified as a heatwave, several regions will nonetheless experience temperatures that could pose health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Despite high atmospheric pressure at surface level, a pool of colder air at higher altitudes will promote the formation of showers and storms in many parts of the country. These storm events may slightly offset the overall temperature increase. Additionally, suspended Saharan dust — forecast to persist throughout the week — may help limit solar radiation and thereby moderate daytime heat.
Data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests that in regions such as Extremadura, western Castilla-La Mancha, inland Galicia, much of Castilla y León, and the Cantabrian Mountains, temperatures could range between 6 and 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Elsewhere across the country, the increase is expected to be between 3 and 6 degrees above average.
By contrast, the Canary Islands will see a more restrained rise in temperatures and will likely avoid the most extreme conditions.
Peak Days: Wednesday to Friday
The most intense phase of this episode is forecast to occur between Wednesday and Friday, during which time maximum daytime temperatures could soar to between 38°C and 40°C in several inland cities. Urban centres such as Seville, Córdoba, Madrid, Badajoz, Toledo, Zaragoza, Lleida, and Ciudad Real are among those most likely to be affected. Even coastal cities on the Cantabrian Sea, including Bilbao and Oviedo, may experience highs exceeding 30°C.
Tropical nights — those in which the minimum temperature does not fall below 20°C — will become increasingly common, particularly in Andalusia, the Mediterranean coastline, the southern plateau, the Ebro valley, and north-eastern inland basins. In some inland cities, especially in Castilla y León, minimum temperatures may not drop below 25°C, making for uncomfortable and sleepless nights.
Heightened Storm Risk and Fire Hazards
Storms will be most frequent in the first half of the week across the southern plateau, Andalusia, and the eastern interior. Localised downpours may lead to flash flooding in dry ravines and gullies, posing a serious risk in affected regions.
From Thursday onwards, storm activity is expected to become more widespread, with renewed intensity in the eastern interior on Friday and a northward shift by Saturday. High-resolution models predict significant electrical activity throughout this period, raising the danger of lightning-induced wildfires — similar to the recent blaze in Chinchilla (Albacete), which was sparked by a lightning strike.
Some of these storm systems could be highly organised, bringing not only heavy rain but also large hailstones, damaging winds, and other severe phenomena.
Canary Islands: On the Edge but Not Immune
While the Canary Islands will remain on the fringe of the main disturbance, residents should still monitor developments closely. Although not directly impacted by the full force of the storms or extreme temperatures, some knock-on effects — such as increased dust levels and mild heat — may still be felt locally.
