A new Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data–driven model forecasts stable rental prices in the Canary Islands through the end of 2025. According to the Fotocasa DataVenues Rental Predictive Index, both Las Palmas de Gran Canaria and Santa Cruz de Tenerife are expected to record no variation (0.0%) in average rental prices during the final quarter of 2025.
This predictive index, published quarterly since January 2025, provides an early snapshot of how Spain’s rental market may evolve, helping to anticipate future trends across major cities.
National Overview: A Divided Market
Across Spain, the AI-based study projects a cooling rental market, with the number of provincial capitals experiencing rent increases falling from 26 to 15. Meanwhile, 19 cities are expected to maintain stable prices, and 17 will likely see declines, two fewer than in the previous quarter.
The data suggests a divided country: growth in the north, stabilisation in the centre, and price corrections in the south and Mediterranean regions.
“Northern cities lead the forecasts for price growth, as demand is shifting towards these areas. These markets have traditionally been more stable and offer a high quality of life. Although housing supply remains limited, prices are still relatively affordable,” explains María Matos, Director of Research and spokesperson for Fotocasa.
At the top of the ranking are Santander (+6.9%), Pontevedra (+6.3%), and San Sebastián (+4.7%). Other regions such as Valladolid (+1.4%) show modest growth, while several cities in Castile and León — including León, Salamanca, Burgos, Palencia, Zamora, and Ávila — are expected to remain unchanged.
Mixed Forecasts Across Spain
In Galicia, results are uneven: Ourense (-2.9%), A Coruña (-1.7%), and Vigo (-0.7%) will see slight declines, while Lugo (0.0%) remains stable and Pontevedra leads the region in growth.
In the Basque Country, Bilbao (0.0%) and Vitoria (0.0%) will stay stable, but San Sebastián continues its upward trajectory (+4.7%). Oviedo (+0.1%), in Asturias, will also see a marginal rise.
Meanwhile, southern and inland Spain display contrasting trends. Badajoz (+4.3%) is projected to experience the strongest growth among interior capitals, followed by Granada (+1.1%), Huelva (+0.8%), and Córdoba (+0.7%). Conversely, cities such as Toledo, Ciudad Real, Guadalajara, and Albacete (0.0%) are forecast to maintain stable rents.
The sharpest declines nationwide are expected in Huesca (-15.0%), Soria (-10.8%), Cuenca (-3.1%), Teruel (-2.9%), and Segovia (-2.1%).
The Mediterranean Arc: Between Pressure and Correction
In the Mediterranean region, rental trends will remain mixed. Tarragona (+3.4%) and Valencia (+2.9%) are forecast to lead with moderate increases, followed by Almería (+0.4%) and Málaga (+0.3%). Meanwhile, Murcia (-3.2%) and Alicante (-2.6%) will record declines, and Castellón de la Plana (0.0%) will remain stable.
In Spain’s largest cities, stability continues to dominate: Madrid (+0.1%), Barcelona (0.0%), Seville (0.0%), Zaragoza (+0.2%), and Girona (0.0%) show no significant movement.
Stable Outlook for the Canary Islands
For the Canary Islands, the AI model anticipates no change in rental prices in either Las Palmas de Gran Canaria or Santa Cruz de Tenerife through December 2025.
This contrasts with other coastal regions, such as the Balearic Islands, where Palma de Mallorca (-3.6%) is projected to experience a notable decline. Other expected decreases include Cádiz (-6.1%), Lleida (-5.9%), Pamplona (-2.1%), Logroño (-0.9%), Cáceres (-0.5%), and Jaén (-0.5%).
