A vast Atlantic front stretching several thousand kilometres is expected to begin affecting the western half of the Iberian Peninsula tomorrow and may significantly alter weather conditions in the Canary Islands over the weekend, bringing episodes of heavy and persistent rain, according to Meteored.
Meteorologists warn that the interaction between this front and a strong anticyclone over central Europe will encourage the formation of a surface low with a retrograde movement—an unusual pattern that could lead to a period of pronounced instability across the islands.
How the rain will affect the Canary Islands
Although winter is typically the wettest season in the archipelago, the scenario projected by the European forecast model for the end of this week stands out for its intensity.
Friday: front brushes the islands
From the early hours of Friday, the cold front associated with the low-pressure system will graze the Canary Islands, producing light rainfall across all islands. Rain may intensify during the afternoon over parts of Tenerife, Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura and Lanzarote.
Saturday: the most problematic day
Saturday is shaping up to be the most complex day of the episode.
- In Tenerife, Gran Canaria and Lanzarote, rainfall could become stormy, locally strong and persistent.
- In La Palma and El Hierro, the day will begin more calmly, although precipitation is expected to strengthen as the hours progress.
Sunday morning: peak intensity
The worst conditions are expected between early Sunday morning and mid-morning, especially on the north-facing slopes of Tenerife and Gran Canaria, where the orography may cause rainfall to accumulate quickly.
Forecast models indicate:
- Windward areas of Tenerife and Gran Canaria may exceed 100 l/m², with offshore values approaching 200 l/m².
- The rest of the archipelago is likely to see around 20 l/m², except El Hierro, with barely 10 l/m².
Strong winds and high seas also expected
Rain will not be the only significant hazard. The tightening pressure gradient between the Azores high and the developing low will create strong wind channels.
Wind gusts forecast
- From Friday afternoon, gusts may reach 70 km/h on the northern slopes of La Palma, La Gomera, Tenerife and Gran Canaria.
- On Saturday and into early Sunday, parts of the north of La Palma, La Gomera and Gran Canaria may exceed 80 km/h, with isolated gusts reaching 90 km/h.
Sea conditions
The sea state will deteriorate significantly:
- On Saturday, very rough seas are expected across the archipelago.
- Waves may reach 8 metres, with crests surpassing 10 metres, particularly around northern La Palma.
Warnings likely – extreme caution advised
Given the evolving situation, residents are urged to monitor Aemet updates closely, as alerts for rain, wind and coastal phenomena are likely to be issued for several islands in the coming hours.
Meteored stresses the need for extreme caution, particularly on the roads and near coastal areas exposed to strong waves.
