The unsettled weather affecting much of Spain at the start of the week is being driven by Storm Harry, a powerful system bringing widespread rain, snowfall and heavy seas, particularly across Mediterranean regions. While the core of the polar jet stream remains positioned well north of the Canary Islands, the archipelago will not escape its indirect effects and will continue to experience cool, wet and unstable conditions over the coming days, according to meteorological analysts at Meteored.
Forecast models indicate that the main centre of the storm will shift towards northern Tunisia, while a secondary low-pressure system develops south of the Balearic Islands. This atmospheric configuration is expected to generate intense easterly winds over north-eastern mainland Spain, where rainfall will be particularly severe. In parts of Girona, accumulated rainfall could exceed 150 litres per square metre, prompting flood risks and orange-level weather warnings issued by AEMET.
Severe conditions across mainland Spain and the Mediterranean
Between today and tomorrow, heavy rainfall is forecast to extend across other areas of Catalonia, the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands and eastern Aragon. Although totals may be slightly lower than earlier projections, some regions — including northern Alicante, southern Valencia, Tarragona, Lower Aragon and the Tramuntana range in Mallorca — could still see more than 60 litres per square metre fall within just 12 hours.
Snowfall will also be a significant feature of this episode. Snow levels are expected to fluctuate between 1,200 and 1,500 metres, affecting the eastern Pyrenees, Teruel and parts of inland Castellón. In the higher areas of Girona, snow accumulations could exceed half a metre, while the southern Iberian System and the Pyrenees of Huesca may see more than 20 centimetres of fresh snowfall.
At sea, conditions are expected to be particularly hazardous. Wave heights of 5 to 6 metres are forecast along large stretches of the Mediterranean coastline, with occasional peaks approaching 10 metres, especially around the Balearic Islands, Catalonia and the Valencian coast. Wind gusts exceeding 70 km/h are also likely in exposed areas.
What this means for the Canary Islands
Although the Canary Islands are far from the storm’s epicentre, they will continue to feel the impact of Atlantic-driven instability. From Wednesday onwards, the influence of Storm Harry is expected to weaken, but attention will turn back to the Atlantic, where a new frontal system is forming. This front is forecast to bring heavy rainfall to Galicia and north-western Spain.
Looking further ahead, meteorological models point to the development of an anticyclonic block between Greenland and Scandinavia. This pattern would allow the polar jet stream to dip southwards, channelling new storms towards the Iberian Peninsula. In this scenario, the Canary Islands would remain relatively sheltered compared with mainland Spain, but not entirely unaffected.
Intermittent showers are expected throughout the week, particularly on the more mountainous islands such as Tenerife, La Palma, Gran Canaria and El Hierro, where the terrain enhances cloud formation and rainfall as weakened fronts pass through. Overall, the archipelago is likely to experience a cooler, cloudier and more changeable atmosphere, typical of wintertime Atlantic instability.
Outlook and monitoring
If current projections regarding the polar jet stream are confirmed, parts of north-western mainland Spain could face very heavy rainfall, with accumulations reaching 150 to 200 litres per square metre in Galicia. In contrast, the Canary Islands will see a milder but persistent spell of unsettled weather rather than extreme conditions.
Meteorologists stress that the evolution of the polar jet stream will need to be closely monitored. A potential late-week intrusion of polar air could trigger a sharp temperature drop and renewed snowfall across large areas of inland Spain. For now, forecasts suggest several more days of unstable weather nationwide, with the Canary Islands continuing under the influence of Atlantic systems, marked by cool temperatures, cloud cover and sporadic rainfall.
