The armed conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran is already having tangible economic repercussions in the Canary Islands, particularly in transport, energy and agricultural supply chains. Although geographically distant from the Middle East, the archipelago’s heavy dependence on maritime imports makes it especially vulnerable to international instability.
Freight costs rise by 15%
One of the first visible consequences has been a sharp increase in the cost of transporting goods to the Islands. According to Samuel Marrero, managing director of the Capisa group and representative of the Canary Islands Government’s Livestock Committee, freight rates for bulk carriers transporting grain have risen by approximately 15%.
To illustrate the impact: if the average transport cost is around €45 per tonne, a 15% increase adds roughly €6.75 per tonne. While this may seem modest at first glance, when multiplied across thousands of tonnes of imported grain, the financial burden on the livestock sector becomes significant.
Marrero explained that market uncertainty tends to push investors towards so-called “safe havens”, such as gold or strategic raw materials. In this case, cereals have been affected, even though actual supply levels have not changed. Soybeans — a key component of animal feed and the primary source of vegetable protein in livestock production — have seen their price rise by 15% in just one week, equating to an increase of about €35 per tonne.
Oil surge and fuel at highest levels since April 2025
Energy markets have reacted strongly to the geopolitical escalation. Brent crude, the European benchmark, has climbed to $91.8 per barrel — a 26% increase in a single week. As a result, petrol prices in the Canary Islands have reached their highest level since April 2025.
Higher oil prices directly affect shipping, manufacturing and distribution costs. In addition, the US dollar has strengthened by around 2.5% since the conflict began. Because most raw materials are traded in dollars, this currency movement further increases import costs for European buyers, including those in the Canary Islands.
Industry warns of renegotiated contracts
Virgilio Correa, president of the Canary Islands Industrial Association (Asinca), confirmed that transport providers have already begun signalling the need to renegotiate freight contracts under less favourable conditions. Rising fuel and gas prices are increasing production costs across multiple sectors.
He warned that wars are inherently inflationary events. The key unknown factor is duration. If the conflict proves prolonged, businesses will inevitably pass these additional costs on to consumers through higher final prices.
For now, industry representatives stress that the situation is not yet comparable to the 2022 crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, when raw material and energy prices reached extreme levels. However, they caution that this assessment could change if hostilities continue.
Maritime transport under pressure
José María Pérez Tavío, president of the Canary Islands Maritime Transport Users’ Council, expressed particular concern about fuel prices and insurance costs. The instability in the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global shipping route — is forcing vessels to take longer alternative routes, increasing fuel consumption and operating expenses.
At the same time, insurance premiums for ships and cargo have risen significantly due to heightened geopolitical risk. International port congestion is also causing delays, although authorities emphasise that domestic supply to the Islands is not currently at risk.
Livestock sector calls for preventive measures
Given the mounting pressures, Samuel Marrero plans to propose economic support measures at the next meeting of the Livestock Committee. He referenced the experience of the Ukraine war, when sector representatives warned early of difficulties but financial aid arrived too late, exacerbating the impact on producers.
He noted one mitigating factor compared to the Ukraine crisis: the countries directly involved in the current conflict are not major cereal producers. Therefore, the structural impact on global grain supply may be less severe.
Nevertheless, he reiterated the need for greater industrial and primary sector self-sufficiency in the Canary Islands. The region’s high dependence on imports leaves it particularly exposed to external shocks — shocks that, he warned, are becoming increasingly frequent in a volatile global environment.
Outlook: uncertainty drives risk
For the moment, there are no immediate supply shortages in the Canary Islands. However, the combination of higher freight rates, rising raw material prices, increased insurance costs and more expensive fuel suggests mounting inflationary pressure.
Everything now hinges on how long the conflict lasts. If it remains short-lived, the economic impact may stabilise. If it drags on, consumers in the Canary Islands can expect to see higher prices across multiple sectors in the months ahead.
