Climate experts are warning of a significant intensification of heatwaves across the Canary Islands, with projections indicating that future summers could bring extended periods of extreme temperatures lasting up to 10 consecutive days. The findings, based on a recent study led by the University of La Laguna, highlight a clear upward trend in the frequency, duration and intensity of these events throughout the 21st century.
A long-term study reveals a shifting climate pattern
The research, which analysed historical climate data from 1985 to 2014, combined this information with forward-looking projections extending to the year 2100. Using the FICLIMA method—a statistical downscaling technique that translates global climate models into localised scenarios—the study provides a detailed picture of how heatwaves are expected to evolve across the archipelago.
The results point to a marked increase in the occurrence of extreme heat episodes, although the impact will vary between islands due to differences in topography and local climatic conditions.
Heatwaves becoming more common and prolonged
According to the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), a heatwave is defined as a period of abnormally high temperatures lasting at least three consecutive days. In recent decades, these events have already become more frequent and intense across both mainland Spain and the Canary Islands—a trend closely linked to climate change.
The new projections suggest that this pattern will intensify significantly. While current heatwaves in the Canary Islands typically last between 4.4 and 5.5 days, future scenarios indicate that they could extend to around 10 consecutive days in the most severe cases. In extreme projections, certain islands could experience more than 60 days per year affected by heatwave conditions.
Eastern islands particularly exposed
The study identifies the eastern islands, especially Fuerteventura, as the areas most likely to experience the greatest increase in heatwave frequency. Under the most pessimistic scenarios, these regions could face up to 6.5 additional heatwave events per year.
At present, the Canary Islands experience fewer than one heatwave per year on average. However, the projected increases signal a substantial shift in regional climate dynamics, with heat events becoming a much more regular feature of the summer months.
Geographic and climatic factors amplify the risk
Researchers highlight that the Canary Islands are particularly vulnerable due to their unique geographical position, situated between temperate and subtropical climate zones. This location makes the archipelago especially exposed to the intrusion of hot air masses from the African continent, particularly from the Sahara Desert.
In addition, the complex island terrain and the influence of the Canary Cold Current play a crucial role in shaping how heatwaves develop and persist. These interacting factors can intensify temperature extremes in certain areas, especially where atmospheric conditions such as temperature inversions occur.
Increasing intensity and wider impacts
Although the average temperatures during heatwaves are not expected to rise dramatically, the study indicates that maximum temperatures could increase significantly. In particular, the western islands—such as La Palma and El Hierro—could see peak temperatures rise by up to 1.4°C during these events.
The implications of these changes extend beyond meteorological concerns. Longer and more intense heatwaves pose growing risks to public health, water resource management and key economic sectors such as tourism and agriculture, all of which are highly sensitive to climate conditions in the region.
A call for adaptation and long-term planning
The researchers conclude that the projected intensification of heatwaves represents a major challenge for the Canary Islands in the coming decades. They emphasise the urgent need for adaptation strategies, including improved urban planning, more efficient water management systems and targeted protection measures for vulnerable populations.
This study forms part of the broader European ARSINOE project, which aims to develop tools for understanding and responding to climate change at a local level. As the findings suggest, the Canary Islands are entering a period of increasing climatic pressure, where proactive planning will be essential to mitigate the long-term impacts of extreme heat.
