In 2024, the Canary Islands, Balearic Islands, and Catalonia are forecasted to lead Spain in year-on-year economic growth, with increases of 3.6%, 3%, and 2.8% respectively, according to the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF).
Conversely, the Basque Country and Asturias are projected to experience the lowest growth rates both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter among all Spanish regions.
AIReF’s report, released this week, details regional GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2024, highlighting that the Canary Islands will see the highest growth at 3.6%, followed by the Balearic Islands at 3%, and Catalonia at 2.8%. Other regions like Navarre and the Valencian Community are expected to grow by 2.6%, with Extremadura close behind at 2.5%.
The national average growth rate is expected to be 2.4%, with Castilla y León, Madrid, and Castilla-La Mancha aligning exactly with this average. Following them are La Rioja, Andalusia, and Cantabria at 2.2%, and Aragon and Galicia at 2.1%. Murcia is forecasted to grow by 2%.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Navarre leads with 1.1% growth, followed by the Canary Islands and the Valencian Community at 1%. Catalonia and La Rioja are above the national average of 0.7%, at 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.
Regions such as Madrid, Galicia, Cantabria, Castilla y León, and Andalusia are expected to match the national quarterly average, while Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura, and the Balearic Islands are predicted to grow by 0.6%. Murcia and Aragon are expected to see a growth of 0.5%, with the Basque Country and Asturias both at 0.4%.
These estimates are based on data from the INE’s quarterly GDP report for Spain, though AIReF notes that these projections are subject to a high level of uncertainty at the regional level.
Specifically for the Basque Country and Asturias, AIReF forecasts year-on-year growth rates of 1.6% and 1.4% respectively, which are significantly lower than the national average. Similarly, both regions are expected to see modest quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4%, further underscoring their relatively stagnant economic performance compared to other regions.
