The tourism sector in Spain is expected to see a 5.3% increase in sales from July through September, showing a general slowdown during the summer compared to the same period last year. This trend follows moderate growth observed in the previous two quarters, according to a quarterly report by Exceltur. The Canary Islands, in particular, are experiencing significant moderation, with a projected increase of only 1.9%.
Exceltur attributes this anticipated growth to robust European demand, buoyed by activity from long-haul markets and, to a lesser extent, domestic tourism. Specific sectors poised for dynamic growth include leisure service providers, which expect an 8.9% increase, passenger transport companies forecasting an 8.7% rise, and urban hotels in international destinations predicting a 6.7% boost in sales.
Conversely, coastal destinations, which rely more on domestic tourists, are predicted to see only a 2.2% increase in activity. Car rental companies are anticipating a steady summer, expecting sales to remain consistent with the second quarter’s performance at a 7.2% increase. Meanwhile, traditional travel agencies foresee a slightly better summer with a 3.7% increase, compared to a 2.4% growth in the previous quarter.
Regionally, the Basque Country and urban destinations in Spain, particularly Madrid, are expected to perform well with respective increases of 8.3% and 11.5%. Coastal areas like Andalusia, the Valencian Community, and Murcia also show positive forecasts, whereas places like Catalonia, the Balearic Islands, and the Canary Islands anticipate more modest gains.
The report also highlights the enduring impact of national demand in more domestic and rural destinations, which had seen significant activity in the previous summer of 2023. Exceltur maintains its initial annual forecast, predicting an 8.6% growth in tourism GDP in current terms and 4.6% in constant terms for 2024, adjusting for price effects.
Despite a slowdown to 7.8% growth in the second quarter, compared to a robust 12.4% in the first quarter, the tourism sector continues to be a significant driver of employment in Spain. By June, the sector had created 79,000 new jobs, with 53.1% of tourism employers planning further job creation, surpassing other sectors of the Spanish economy.
Foreign demand for Spanish destinations remains strong, underscored by a 19.5% increase in spending levels at destinations, outpacing the rise in tourist inflows and overnight stays. This is largely due to a 5.9% increase in average daily spending, primarily driven by a 5.6% hike in prices.
